COP29 comment: Hope for progress nationally and internationally in time of crisis 

COP29 kicked off last week in Azerbaijan to once again try and identify global solutions for tackling the climate emergency and move to a fairer, more sustainable world.  

With the conference now in full swing, Ian Cochran, our Head of Consultancy and regular COP attendee, shares his insight into how finance and funding are essential to maintain the momentum of global climate action, both around the world and here in Scotland… 

Sometimes here in Scotland it can feel like discussions at COP are far, far away. After all, this year’s conference in Baku is nearly 3,000 miles away from Edinburgh.  

Equally as distant can be some of the language used by COP attendees. The next fortnight will be filled with jargon such as ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ (what each country commits to deliver for the climate over the next five years) and ‘New Collective Quantified Goal’ (the funds that historic high emitting countries provide to developing countries for climate action). 

At the heart of the event though, there are clear parallels between discussions in Baku and the challenges we face in accelerating climate action in Scotland and the rest of the UK:  increased ambition across and the essential role of public and private finance. 

Firstly, on ambition, countries will be asked to provide updated voluntary commitments to help accelerate global greenhouse gas reduction efforts. Following the collective agreement at COP 28 that more ambition is needed to reduce emissions, each country has faced political challenges to come to the table with its new commitments as well as a roadmap to achieve them. 

“Legislative action is urgently needed to accelerate the decarbonisation of buildings in Scotland.”

Here in Scotland, we are also no strangers to political upheaval getting in the way of net zero ambitions. Earlier this year the Scottish Government announced it would scrap its interim 2030 target to reduce Scotland’s carbon emissions by 75%, a move that was certified by MSPs earlier this month.

While Scotland has now moved to a five-year cycle of carbon budgeting to map a more “incremental” course to meet its 2045 net zero target, we also need to see the delivery of key legislation which will play a major part in Scotland’s net zero ambitions.  

For example, legislative action is urgently needed to accelerate the decarbonisation of buildings in Scotland that account for 20% of our greenhouse gas emissions,13% of which come from the home.  

The Heat in Buildings Bill is a once in a generation chance to revolutionise the way our homes and buildings are built and retrofitted. Likewise, the Social Housing Net Zero Standard is crucial for improving the comfort and wellbeing of households as well as tackling Scotland’s fuel poverty crisis. 

Secondly, this year’s COP will be the first since 2009 where developed nations aim to agree to a new model of how international climate action will be financed. Negotiations will also include agreeing a clear path forward for the Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable countries deal with the impacts of climate change. 

With the Scottish Budget set to take place just two weeks after COP, and policies such as peak rail fares and funding for nature restoration scrapped, many are waiting nervously to see if the Government will be able to pull together the public and private capital required to meet its commitments. With a range of estimates of the cost of decarbonising buildings in Scotland ranging from the tens to the hundreds of billions, the solution must include the mobilisation at scale of both public and private resources.  

“It’s now more vital than ever that leaders come together and commit to stronger national climate actions.”

Finally, overshadowing discussions in Baku and Edinburgh is Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States of America. During his campaign, the President-elect claimed that climate change is “one of the great scams of all time”, and has threatened to pull out of the Paris climate accord once again, as happened during his first Presidency.   

With this comes far reaching economic and symbolic repercussions, so these threats cannot be taking lightly. However, they also should not be a reason for climate action to be placed on the backburner and further delayed. 

This can all feel overwhelming. However, whether in Azerbaijan or Scotland, it is now more vital than ever that leaders come together and commit to stronger national climate actions, with people at the centre via a just transition. The challenges we all face in tackling the climate crisis remain large, but the beneficial outcomes and opportunities clearly demonstrate that there is still space for action.  

In the building sector specifically, decarbonisation can be part of the solution to broader challenges, with the benefits of scaling up building retrofit being multiple. Going beyond direct energy savings, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the health and wellbeing of residents, investing in this area can help scale-up supply chains and job creation.  

Encouragingly, it feels as if we are on the cusp of finally getting things right.  

On finance, here in Scotland and across the other corners of the UK, we are recognising that it will take the full range of public and private funding solutions to scale the delivery of retrofit and heat decarbonisation. Beyond increased capital funding from government, new approaches are emerging by targeting key sectors such as social housing, including a £1billion commitment from Barclays and Lloyds via the UK Government’s National Wealth Fund. 

On ambition, actors across Scotland are also poised to accelerate progress.  

Local authorities have completed or are in the final stages of completing their Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategies (LHEES). These will serve as essential roadmaps for domestic and non-domestic decarbonisation in the years to come.  

“Encouragingly, it feels as if we are on the cusp of finally getting things right.”

Housing associations continue to move forward with the decarbonisation of their stock, recognising that this is both an essential part of meeting regulatory compliance, but also good for tenants.

Steps are also being taken to learn from existing programmes such as Area Based Schemes to leverage economies of scale to reduce costs to households as well as broader benefits for communities via “place-based solutions”.  

Finally, and above all, in both Baku and Edinburgh, there is a clear recognition that the transition to a low-carbon climate-resilient future must be “just”. Ensuring that all parts of society have both access to the advice, resources, and means to decarbonise and adapt, as well as benefit from the broader changes across jobs and the broader economy is essential. If the American election can teach us one thing, it is that we can only move forward when we leave nobody behind. 

There is no silver bullet to tackling the climate crisis. We all must play our collective part, no matter how big or small. While it might sometimes feel like swimming against the tide, COP is an annual reminder that ideas and solutions are consistently forthcoming. It’s up to all of us to action them. 

The politics and economics may feel uncertain, but we cannot allow our collective efforts to stall. We must keep the momentum going.